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By Steve Bergsman

compliment for After The Fall

"Steve Bergsman presents his readers with probably the most accomplished, but concise overviews of genuine property and all its estate types."--Christopher Macke, vp, GE genuine Estate

"This is a rare paintings of distinctive learn and compelling writing. I've by no means noticeable the topic awarded in any such cogent and skillful manner."--Phil corridor, editor, Secondary advertising and marketing Executive

"The means out of the monetary crash of 2007/2008 will come via expert operations, astute making an investment, and the facility of actual property practitioners to renounce their psychological reminiscence of the long run! The heated good fortune of ten-year, unheard of progress within the genuine property has someway atrophied the industry's software of information. What we'd like is a clean examine possibilities and methods for actual property making an investment. we're fortunate that Bergsman's booklet has healthy the bill--just in time."--Jack M. Cohen, CEO, Cohen Financial

"Insightful and informative; connects the entire dots, delivering the foundation and starting place for making strategic judgements approximately actual estate."--Stephen clean, Senior Fellow, Finance, The city Land Institute

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Additional resources for After the Fall: Opportunities and Strategies for Real Estate Investing in the Coming Decade

Sample text

3 The most simple and direct argument for efficient markets theory comes from the observation that it seems to be difficult to make a lot of money by buying low and selling high in the stock market. Many seemingly capable people try but fail to do this with any consistent degree of success. Moreover, one observes that in order to make money one must compete against some of the smartest investors, the so-called “smart money,” who trade in financial markets looking for the same opportunities.

Why is there such a discrepancy between the growth of the stock price and the growth of the dividend present value? 7% over this interval, far short of the 415% increase in real stock prices but still much higher than the increase in the dividend present value. If the overall dividends were growing so much during the 1920s, then why was their present value growing so little? The answer is that the dividend increase of the 1920s did not last long; it was confined largely to the 1920s and so did not contribute enormously to the present value of all real future dividends out to infinity.

Investors have also lost sight of another truth: that no one is guaranteeing that stocks will do well. There is no welfare plan for people who lose in the stock market. 196 ATTE MP TS TO R AT IONALIZE EXUBER ANC E The “Stocks Have Always Outperformed Bonds” Theme in Investing Culture Nine years ago I was already so struck by the ubiquity of the observation that stocks have historically outperformed bonds that I decided to try to learn how common the observation really was. S. institutional investors in 1991: Consider the following argument: “Over the past 65 years, stocks have earned much higher returns than bonds and there has been no 20-year period since 1926 that bonds have outperformed stocks.

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